International
Trump’s Middle East Policy Taking Shape
Follow Steve Postal: @HebraicMosaic
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What would a new Trump administration mean for the Middle East? Expect the following:
Increased Pressure on Iran and its Proxies
Brian Hook, Trump’s former special envoy to Iran who is believed to be leading Trump’s transition team for the State Department, stated that the new Trump administration would seek to “…isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken them economically, so that they can’t fund all of the violence…” coming from Iran’s proxies, “…all of whom destabilize Israel and our Gulf partners.” This approach contrasts with the Biden-Harris administration, who engaged the Islamic Republic diplomatically and economically, and even removed the Houthis from the Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) entity list from February 2021 through January 2024. That being said, Hook also stated that the new Trump administration would have “no interest in regime change” in Iran, and that decisions about the future of Iran lies with its people.
The Trump administration may green light an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. GOP spokeswoman Elizabeth Pipko refused to say whether President-elect Trump would approve of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear sites, stating that Trump should speak for himself on this issue and will do so when he assumes office. However, Trump had stated in October that Israel should strike Iran’s nuclear sites. In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration vocally opposed Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear sites or oil fields, and Israel’s attack plans were leaked to Iran through someone in the Biden-Harris administration’s Defense department.
Striving to End Wars in Lebanon and Gaza
According to Pipko, President-elect Trump wants Israel to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon quickly, decisively, and with victory. Pipko contrasted this approach with the Biden-Harris administration’s “back and forth” policy, and that the Biden-Harris administration was pressuring how Israel conducts war based on election considerations. The Biden-Harris administration was guilty of “armchair quarterbacking” Israel’s wars in an unproductive way, including by leaking Israel’s plans to strike Lebanon, opposing the Rafah invasion, and opposing the killing of several arch-terrorists.
Trump will also likely prioritize the release of the hostages; Trump recently threatened Hamas, stating that if they did not free its hostages before inauguration day, it will pay “a very big price.” In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration has been spinning its wheels in endless failed diplomacy with Qatar, having not produced a hostage deal with Hamas since November 2023.
Pursuing a Conditional Peace with Palestinians
President-elect Donald Trump will likely re-visit his 2020 peace plan between Israel and the Palestinians, according to Brian Hook. Regarding the 2020 plan, Hook stated that “much of that work is still relevant today.”
On the issue of a Palestinian state, expect that the Trump administration won’t pursue a Palestinian state unconditionally for its own sake, as the Biden-Harris administration has. Hook conceded that Trump’s 2020 plan, which was endorsed by Israel and U.S.’ allies in the Gulf, “had a path to a two-state solution.” But Hook also recognized that Israelis are not focused on a Palestinian state now, and are instead focused on protecting themselves from terrorism in the wake of the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
Additionally, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas outright rejected the 2020 plan, and the plan also required the PA to provide security guarantees for Israel, recognize Israel, and allow Israeli citizens to remain in Judea and Samaria, all of which the PA did not agree to. If the new Trump administration seeks to revive this plan, it will likely revive these conditions for a Palestinian state as well. The PA will then in turn likely reject it a second time, proving again that the PA is not a partner for peace.
Expanding the Abraham Accords
President-elect Trump is also poised to expand the Abraham Accords. Trump brokered normalization deals between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Reportedly, the previous Trump administration was on the verge of expanding the Abraham Accords to Indonesia and Mauritania, but were prevented from doing so once the administration’s term expired. During the past Trump administration, Saudi Arabia had been trying to get Pakistan to join the Abraham Accords as well.
In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration failed to add any countries to the Abraham Accords. Most notably is the administration’s failure to clinch an Israel-Saudi Arabia deal after chilling US relations with Saudi Arabiaand insisting on a Palestinian state as an integral part of any deal. The Biden-Harris administration seems content with now pursuing a bilateral US-Saudi deal that ices out Israel, which would completely undermine the spirit of the Abraham Accords.
Jared Kushner has had multiple discussions with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the issue of US-Israel-Saudi relations since President-elect Trump left office. So given past efforts, the new Trump administration could clinch Abraham Accords deals with Indonesia, Mauritania, Oman, and/or the big prize, Saudi Arabia.
China’s nuclear arsenal has surged to over 500 warheads—more than double the previous U.S. estimate—according to a newly released Pentagon intelligence report. This “rapid expansion” is raising alarm among U.S. officials as Beijing aggressively accelerates its military capabilities and steps up hostilities toward allied states in the Pacific.
The Daily Caller News Foundation reports that in 2020, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessed that China had amassed roughly 200 nuclear warheads and projected that the count could reach 400 by 2030. But the latest findings show China has already far exceeded that estimate, and the Pentagon now believes China could have over 1,000 operational warheads by 2030.
According to the report, China’s current nuclear build-up represents the most rapid and ambitious modernization effort in its history, indicating the nation’s long-term strategy for sustained competition with the U.S. and signaling an operational readiness for intensified strategic concepts. China’s arsenal, composed of various nuclear warheads, can be launched from a range of platforms, including submarines, ground-mobile systems, and aircraft. The DIA report also notes that China is building additional facilities for the production of fissile materials to further scale up its nuclear arsenal.
The report suggests that China remains committed to a “no first use” nuclear policy—meaning it would only launch a nuclear strike in retaliation. However, China’s “launch-on-warning” policy enables it to strike back preemptively if it detects an incoming attack.
“China is fielding new nuclear capabilities at a faster pace than at any time in its history,” the DIA report reads, emphasizing the military’s objective to achieve parity with the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Despite Beijing’s statements about maintaining a defensive posture, the Pentagon warns that China’s rapid nuclear advancements could lead to an increased risk of miscalculation.
The Pentagon report highlights China’s growing capability and confidence, suggesting that Beijing’s bolstered nuclear deterrence over the next decade could embolden its leaders. This, in turn, increases the risk of miscalculations and escalations as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) builds up the capability to counter the U.S. across various domains.
A spokesperson from the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. downplayed concerns, pointing to America’s extensive nuclear arsenal as a primary security risk. “China is committed to a defensive nuclear strategy and a policy of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons and keeps our nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required by national security,” the spokesperson told the DCNF.
The report also reflects a lack of transparency in U.S.-China relations, with military talks largely suspended since 2022 and only resuming recently. This limited communication between the nations further fuels apprehension within the international community.
China’s nuclear expansion aligns with its broader military ambitions under President Xi Jinping, who has ordered the PLA to be prepared for a possible invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Although the U.S. maintains a “strategic ambiguity” policy toward Taiwan—meaning it does not disclose how it would respond to a Chinese invasion—the potential for conflict has heightened as China’s military power grows.
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