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Elections

Times/Siena poll: Trump leads Biden in 5 out of 6 battleground swing states

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According to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College  former President Donald Trump is leading current President Joe Biden in five out of 6 of the most important battleground swing states. Specifically, the poll shows Biden losing to Trump by large margins between four to ten percentage points, among voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The sixth swing state Biden appears to be ahead in is Wisconsin, and that is only by two percentage points.

“Add it all together”, and Mr. Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania.

The results are devastating to the Democratic Party because all six of the battleground states were ultimately won by Biden in the 2020 election. The polls show a majority of voters believe Biden’s policies have personally hurt them. Part of the issue for Biden’s lowering numbers is in part due to the demographic groups that widely supported Biden in 2020.

Voters under 30 years old favor Biden only by a single percentage point. His lead among Hispanic voters has dwindled down to single digits. The New York Times reports that Black voters “long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden – are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.”

“In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six” writes the Times.

59 percent to 37 percent of voters said they better trusted Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden on the economy, the largest gap of any issue. Trump won on economic issues among both men and women, those with college degrees and those without them, every age range and every income level.

Biden turns 81 later this month, and is the oldest president in American history. An overwhelming 71 percent said he was “too old” to be an effective president, including 54 percent of Biden’s own supporters. Only 19 percent of supporters of Trump, who is 77, viewed him as too old, and 39 percent of the electorate overall.

The Times quotes voters to give insight into the logic of voters. “I actually had high hopes for Biden,” said Jahmerry Henry, a 25-year-old who packages liquor in Albany, Ga. “You can’t be worse than Trump. But then as the years go by, things happen with inflation, the war going on in Ukraine, recently Israel and I guess our borders are not secure at all.” Henry now plans to vote for Trump if those are the two 2024 options.

“The world is falling apart under Biden,” said Spencer Weiss, a 53-year-old electrical substation specialist in Bloomsburg, Pa., who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 but is now backing Mr. Trump, albeit with some reservations. “I would much rather see somebody that I feel can be a positive role-model leader for the country. But at least I think Trump has his wits about him.”

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Elections

Kamala Harris Faces Setback as Gen Z, Women Under 30 Shift Support to Donald Trump

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In a surprising outcome of the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign suffered a stinging loss in support from young Gen Z women, a demographic long considered safe for the Democratic Party. Exit polling by AP reveals a significant shift: 40 percent of women under 30 cast their ballots for President-elect Donald Trump, a seven-point increase from the 2020 election. Among the youngest voters, aged 18 to 24, Trump saw an 11-point gain over his 2020 race against Joe Biden.

Despite liberal media blaming Harris’ loss on white males, Breitbart reports that the swing of women played a crucial role in Trump’s broader success with voters under 30, securing him the largest share of this demographic that any Republican candidate has achieved since 2008. In the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton held a commanding 19-point lead with young voters, which Biden stretched to 25 points in 2020. Under Harris, however, that gap dwindled to a mere six points, marking a substantial erosion of Democratic support among younger Americans.

Harris made concerted efforts to connect with Gen Z female voters. She embraced cultural phenomena like “brat summer,” appeared on the popular ‘Call Her Daddy’ podcast, and garnered endorsements from major music icons including Charli XCX, Taylor Swift, and Beyoncé. Her campaign leveraged social media, where Harris cultivated a persona as “Momala” and created TikTok videos featuring Chappell Roan’s hit song “Femininomenon.” Harris’s TikTok success translated into 448 million “likes,” far outpacing Trump’s 102 million. But while she dominated on social media, the online popularity failed to translate into votes.

Psychotherapist and author Jonathan Alpert wasn’t surprised by Trump’s gains among young women. “There’s an assumption made about Gen Z—that simply being young and female means a natural alignment with the Democratic candidate,” he told *DailyMail.com*. “Many told me they felt unsafe in Biden and Harris’s America and wanted a change.”

Business analyst and political commentator Nadja Atwal shared similar observations, noting that young voters didn’t connect with Harris’s campaign despite its efforts to speak their language. “Many felt it was not relatable,” she said. “While economic indicators may look good on paper, high costs have made it challenging for people to make a living. Many Gen Z voters felt that Harris’s campaign didn’t address this issue enough.”

Atwal also suggested that Harris’s reliance on celebrity endorsements may have backfired. “Many young people felt downright insulted by the Harris campaign banking on star power,” she explained. “It does not resonate to see Hollywood and music stars with bodyguards and gated mansions endorsing a candidate. Trump’s campaign, on the other hand, emphasized working-class values, with appearances in relatable settings like McDonald’s or garbage trucks, which came across as cool and accessible.”

Trump also targeted Gen Z through platforms more popular with young men, including appearances on podcasts with Joe Rogan, Theo Von, and the Nelk Boys. His 18-year-old son, Barron, reportedly advised him on how to appeal to the younger demographic, and Trump saw a 15-point increase among men under 30, with 56 percent supporting him over Harris.

Turnout among young voters was around 42 percent, slightly down from the 50 percent turnout in 2020 but comparable to the 2016 election. As Democrats review the election results, the loss of Gen Z support—and particularly young women—has become a major talking point and a clear signal that economic concerns, safety, and authenticity were paramount for many young voters this election cycle.

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