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Saudi Arabia-Israel Deal Remains Biden’s Win to Lose

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The Biden administration has recently become very vocally supportive of the Abraham Accords. At this week’s speech to AIPAC, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the administration plans to have staff dedicated to expand the Abraham Accords, and also called normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel a “real national interest” of the United States. Outgoing US Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides recently called such relations “hugely important” to American interests, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reportedly discussed the prospect of normalization with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.  

Two unnamed US officials told Axios that the Biden administration would be pushing for closer Saudi Arabia-Israel relations in the next six to seven months. This is tracking with Israeli foreign minister Eli Cohen’s statement that there is a “good chance” of a Saudi Arabia-Israel deal “in half a year, or in the coming year.”

Saudi Arabia and Israel appear to continue to inch closer to normalization. Saudi Arabia continues to improve its textbooks regarding their portrayal of Israel and Jews, and Saudi Arabia and Israel are in “very complex negotiations” to secure hajj flights of Israeli Arabs to Mecca.

But while the Biden administration is setting high expectations for a breakthrough, its uncompromising positions on issues of Saudi and Israeli national security may inhibit a grand deal for Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization.

Resuming Negotiations with the Palestinians

First, the Biden administration’s continued obsession with a two-state solution could upend a deal. Secretary Blinken suggested that progress on the Abraham Accords should be linked to a “two-state solution” for Israel and the Palestinians in his speech this week to AIPAC (and mentioned a “two-state solution” or “two states” a whopping eight times). Both the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia have expressed that they want Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization in exchange in part for Israel to restart negotiations with the Palestinians that would result in a “separation” of Israel from the Palestinians. At the recent Arab League Summit, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) stated that “the Palestinian issue was and remains the central issue for Arab countries, and is at the top of the kingdom’s priorities.”

However, Palestinian nationalism in its current form is toxic at its core to Israel, and will likely be a bridge too far for Netanyahu’s government. If the Biden administration makes Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization contingent on substantial advancement towards a two-state solution, it is unlikely that a Saudi Arabia-Israel deal will materialize.

Overhauling Judicial Reform

Another example of the Biden administration getting in its own way in securing a deal is that it also wants Netanyahu’s government to abandon its judicial reform initiative in exchange for normalization. With Blinken stating that “we welcome efforts to find consensus on any [judicial] reforms, the Biden administration is signaling that it will continue to meddle in this affair. If the If the Biden administration makes abandonment or revision of judicial reform as a condition for normalization, the deal will likely fail given Netanyahu government’s plan to continue such reform.

Saudi Arabia Wants To Increase Nuclear, Defense Ties With United States

The Biden administration could also come up short on normalization if it fails to reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia on nuclear and defense guarantees that it wants in exchange.

First, Saudi Arabia reportedly wants the United States to help jointly develop Saudi Arabia’s civilian nuclear program in exchange for normalization. Previous US-Saudi negotiations on this issue stalled over Saudi demands to produce nuclear fuel in Saudi Arabia. But if the Biden administration does not come to an agreement on this, the US will likely be leaving money (and influence) on the table, as Saudi Arabia will pursue nuclear cooperation elsewhere. Saudi Arabia’s relationship with China and Pakistan are cases in point.

Israeli officials are split on the issue of Saudi Arabia gaining nuclear technology. Israel’s energy minister recently opposedthe idea of Saudi Arabia having a civilian nuclear program. However, Israel’s National Security Advisor did not outright reject the idea of Saudi Arabia having civilian nuclear technology, but rather suggested that such a move should be coordinated with Israel. Additionally, even though the Saudi request reportedly includes the right to enrich uranium independently, Israeli officials have stated that this is a mitigatable concern.

Additionally, MBS wants the Biden administration to sign a US-Saudi defense treaty and unfreeze several weapons agreements previously put on ice by the Biden administration, according to Israeli press. MBS is also seeking improved military coordination between the US and Saudi Arabia, access to US munitions for the Saudi Air Force, and to gain access to complex US military platforms, according to Axios.

It remains to be seen if the Biden administration can come to an agreement on the nuclear and defense issues. But if these remain at an impasse, they would significantly harm the prospects of Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization.

The Biden administration stands on the precipice of securing a huge foreign policy win by securing a Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization deal. But while Netanyahu was prepared to forgo annexation of Judea and Samaria to secure deals with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan (and was contemplating doing so to get a deal with Saudi Arabia in December), the Biden administration’s demands on Israel for a twostate solution and dropping judicial reform efforts could prove to be a bridge too far. The Biden administration must also somehow make an agreement with Saudi Arabia on its defense requests in order for such normalization to have a chance at survival. But as Saudi Arabia recently promised cuts to oil production, met with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and is getting closer to China, the Biden administration faces significant headwinds.

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National Security

Former senior Army officer indicted for sharing defense secrets with woman in Ukraine he met on dating website

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The Justice Department (DOJ) accused a former senior Army officer assigned to U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) of giving out classified defense secrets to a woman he met on a foreign dating website in an indictment unsealed Monday night. According to the indictment, David Franklin Slater, who had retired from the Army as a lieutenant colonel, allegedly sent information labeled SECRET from approximately February to April 2022.

Slater was working as a civilian employee for STRATCOM, which oversees U.S. nuclear forces, where he held a Top Secret security clearance and had access to sensitive briefings about Russia’s war against Ukraine. The individual receiving the information claimed to be a woman from Ukraine.

The Daily Caller News Foundation reports:

The woman called Slater her “secret informant love” and her “secret agent,” according to a transcript of their exchanges included in the indictment.

She frequently asked him to provide “sensitive, non-public, closely held and classified” defense information, the DOJ said in a press release. Some of that information pertained to military targets related to Russia’s war in Ukraine and U.S. information on Russian military capabilities.

“American Intelligence says that already 100% of Russian troops are located on the territory of Ukraine. Do you think this information can be trusted?” the conspirator asked on March 7, 2022, the first request mentioned in the indictment.

Others followed on a regular basis.

“By the way, you were the first to tell me that NATO members are traveling by train and only now (already evening) this was announced on our news. You are my secret informant love! How were your meetings? Successfully?” the conspirator messaged Slater on March 15, 2022.

Another request for classified information in March was signed, “You are my secret agent. With love.”

In each of the cases, Slater provided the requested secret information, the indictment alleges.

“Sweet Dave, the supply of weapons is completely classified, which is great!” the conspirator told Slater in on April 12.

Authorities arrested Slater on Saturday, according to a press release accompanying the indictment. The DOJ charged Slater with one count of conspiracy to disclose national defense information and two counts of unauthorized disclosure.

He was set to make his first court appearance on Tuesday; if convicted, he faces up to 10 years in prison and fines of up to $750,000, according to the DOJ.

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