China’s nuclear arsenal has surged to over 500 warheads—more than double the previous U.S. estimate—according to a newly released Pentagon intelligence report. This “rapid expansion” is raising alarm among U.S. officials as Beijing aggressively accelerates its military capabilities and steps up hostilities toward allied states in the Pacific.

The Daily Caller News Foundation reports that in 2020, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessed that China had amassed roughly 200 nuclear warheads and projected that the count could reach 400 by 2030. But the latest findings show China has already far exceeded that estimate, and the Pentagon now believes China could have over 1,000 operational warheads by 2030.

According to the report, China’s current nuclear build-up represents the most rapid and ambitious modernization effort in its history, indicating the nation’s long-term strategy for sustained competition with the U.S. and signaling an operational readiness for intensified strategic concepts. China’s arsenal, composed of various nuclear warheads, can be launched from a range of platforms, including submarines, ground-mobile systems, and aircraft. The DIA report also notes that China is building additional facilities for the production of fissile materials to further scale up its nuclear arsenal.

The report suggests that China remains committed to a “no first use” nuclear policy—meaning it would only launch a nuclear strike in retaliation. However, China’s “launch-on-warning” policy enables it to strike back preemptively if it detects an incoming attack.

“China is fielding new nuclear capabilities at a faster pace than at any time in its history,” the DIA report reads, emphasizing the military’s objective to achieve parity with the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Despite Beijing’s statements about maintaining a defensive posture, the Pentagon warns that China’s rapid nuclear advancements could lead to an increased risk of miscalculation.

The Pentagon report highlights China’s growing capability and confidence, suggesting that Beijing’s bolstered nuclear deterrence over the next decade could embolden its leaders. This, in turn, increases the risk of miscalculations and escalations as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) builds up the capability to counter the U.S. across various domains.

A spokesperson from the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. downplayed concerns, pointing to America’s extensive nuclear arsenal as a primary security risk. “China is committed to a defensive nuclear strategy and a policy of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons and keeps our nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required by national security,” the spokesperson told the DCNF.

The report also reflects a lack of transparency in U.S.-China relations, with military talks largely suspended since 2022 and only resuming recently. This limited communication between the nations further fuels apprehension within the international community.

China’s nuclear expansion aligns with its broader military ambitions under President Xi Jinping, who has ordered the PLA to be prepared for a possible invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Although the U.S. maintains a “strategic ambiguity” policy toward Taiwan—meaning it does not disclose how it would respond to a Chinese invasion—the potential for conflict has heightened as China’s military power grows.