International
Military Analysts: ‘Extensive Intelligence Gathering’ and ‘Physical Access’ Went into Explosive Pagers Attack on Hezbollah
More details are emerging after a highly coordinated and sophisticated attack targeting pagers used by hundreds of members of the Iran-backed terror group, Hezbollah. The devices exploded nearly simultaneously in Lebanon and Syria on Tuesday. The Associated Press reports the blasts killed at least 12 people, including two children, and injured thousands more.
A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed to the Associated Press that Israel had briefed the U.S. on the operation after it concluded. The official revealed that small explosive devices hidden within the pagers were remotely detonated. While specifics of the operation remain unclear, the coordinated nature of the explosions suggests a long-planned, state-sponsored operation. Israel’s military has declined to comment.
Military analysts estimate that the planning for Tuesday’s coordinated pager explosions may have taken anywhere from several months to two years. The attack would have required extensive intelligence gathering, physical access to the pagers before they were distributed to Hezbollah members, and the development of advanced technology capable of remote detonation.
Hezbollah relies on pagers for communication, deliberately avoiding cell phones to reduce the risk of Israeli tracking. This long-standing method of secure communication became a vulnerability in Tuesday’s attack. A Hezbollah official told the Associated Press that the exploded pagers were of a new brand that the group had not used before.
The pagers were produced by Budapest-based BAC Consulting, using a design licensed by Taiwanese company Gold Apollo. Both companies have yet to issue detailed explanations on how the devices might have been compromised.
Nicholas Reese, a former intelligence officer and adjunct instructor at New York University’s Center for Global Affairs, said the attack would force Hezbollah to reconsider its communications strategies. Reese suggested that survivors of the attack are likely to dispose of not just their pagers but also other electronic devices to avoid future risks.
Experts have speculated that the explosive charges were likely embedded in the pagers during the manufacturing or supply process. Carlos Perez, director of security intelligence at TrustedSec, theorized that the pager batteries may have been partially replaced with explosive material, enabling remote detonation.
Elijah J. Magnier, a veteran analyst with deep experience in the region, reported speaking with Hezbollah members who survived the attack. According to Magnier, the pagers had been functioning normally for six months before being triggered by an error message sent to all devices. Many pagers did not detonate, which allowed Hezbollah to analyze them and determine that 3 to 5 grams of highly explosive material had been hidden within their circuitry.
Follow Steve Postal: @HebraicMosaic
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What would a new Trump administration mean for the Middle East? Expect the following:
Increased Pressure on Iran and its Proxies
Brian Hook, Trump’s former special envoy to Iran who is believed to be leading Trump’s transition team for the State Department, stated that the new Trump administration would seek to “…isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken them economically, so that they can’t fund all of the violence…” coming from Iran’s proxies, “…all of whom destabilize Israel and our Gulf partners.” This approach contrasts with the Biden-Harris administration, who engaged the Islamic Republic diplomatically and economically, and even removed the Houthis from the Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) entity list from February 2021 through January 2024. That being said, Hook also stated that the new Trump administration would have “no interest in regime change” in Iran, and that decisions about the future of Iran lies with its people.
The Trump administration may green light an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. GOP spokeswoman Elizabeth Pipko refused to say whether President-elect Trump would approve of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear sites, stating that Trump should speak for himself on this issue and will do so when he assumes office. However, Trump had stated in October that Israel should strike Iran’s nuclear sites. In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration vocally opposed Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear sites or oil fields, and Israel’s attack plans were leaked to Iran through someone in the Biden-Harris administration’s Defense department.
Striving to End Wars in Lebanon and Gaza
According to Pipko, President-elect Trump wants Israel to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon quickly, decisively, and with victory. Pipko contrasted this approach with the Biden-Harris administration’s “back and forth” policy, and that the Biden-Harris administration was pressuring how Israel conducts war based on election considerations. The Biden-Harris administration was guilty of “armchair quarterbacking” Israel’s wars in an unproductive way, including by leaking Israel’s plans to strike Lebanon, opposing the Rafah invasion, and opposing the killing of several arch-terrorists.
Trump will also likely prioritize the release of the hostages; Trump recently threatened Hamas, stating that if they did not free its hostages before inauguration day, it will pay “a very big price.” In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration has been spinning its wheels in endless failed diplomacy with Qatar, having not produced a hostage deal with Hamas since November 2023.
Pursuing a Conditional Peace with Palestinians
President-elect Donald Trump will likely re-visit his 2020 peace plan between Israel and the Palestinians, according to Brian Hook. Regarding the 2020 plan, Hook stated that “much of that work is still relevant today.”
On the issue of a Palestinian state, expect that the Trump administration won’t pursue a Palestinian state unconditionally for its own sake, as the Biden-Harris administration has. Hook conceded that Trump’s 2020 plan, which was endorsed by Israel and U.S.’ allies in the Gulf, “had a path to a two-state solution.” But Hook also recognized that Israelis are not focused on a Palestinian state now, and are instead focused on protecting themselves from terrorism in the wake of the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
Additionally, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas outright rejected the 2020 plan, and the plan also required the PA to provide security guarantees for Israel, recognize Israel, and allow Israeli citizens to remain in Judea and Samaria, all of which the PA did not agree to. If the new Trump administration seeks to revive this plan, it will likely revive these conditions for a Palestinian state as well. The PA will then in turn likely reject it a second time, proving again that the PA is not a partner for peace.
Expanding the Abraham Accords
President-elect Trump is also poised to expand the Abraham Accords. Trump brokered normalization deals between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Reportedly, the previous Trump administration was on the verge of expanding the Abraham Accords to Indonesia and Mauritania, but were prevented from doing so once the administration’s term expired. During the past Trump administration, Saudi Arabia had been trying to get Pakistan to join the Abraham Accords as well.
In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration failed to add any countries to the Abraham Accords. Most notably is the administration’s failure to clinch an Israel-Saudi Arabia deal after chilling US relations with Saudi Arabiaand insisting on a Palestinian state as an integral part of any deal. The Biden-Harris administration seems content with now pursuing a bilateral US-Saudi deal that ices out Israel, which would completely undermine the spirit of the Abraham Accords.
Jared Kushner has had multiple discussions with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the issue of US-Israel-Saudi relations since President-elect Trump left office. So given past efforts, the new Trump administration could clinch Abraham Accords deals with Indonesia, Mauritania, Oman, and/or the big prize, Saudi Arabia.
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