International
Israeli Intelligence Warns of Impending Iran-Backed Attack from Iraq
Israeli intelligence is indicating that Iran may be preparing to launch an attack on Israel from Iraqi territory within the coming days, potentially timed to precede the U.S. presidential election, according to two Israeli sources cited by Axios. The planned assault would likely involve pro-Iranian militias operating out of Iraq, with an arsenal of drones and ballistic missiles reportedly ready for use, underscoring a strategy that may allow Iran to evade direct Israeli retaliation on Iranian soil.
Israel and Iran have been escalating their longstanding conflict in recent weeks, with each side responding to the other’s military actions in a cycle of retaliatory strikes. Launching the attack from Iraq rather than directly from Iran could provide Tehran a measure of strategic cover, helping to minimize the risk of Israeli airstrikes on high-value targets within Iran’s own borders.
According to Israeli sources, Axios reports, the intelligence community believes Iran could initiate the operation swiftly if Tehran chooses to proceed. However, a U.S. official noted that the final decision has not yet been confirmed, leaving room for diplomacy or further intelligence analysis.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami issued a warning last Thursday, declaring that Israel’s recent actions constituted a “mistake” and that Iran’s retaliation would be “different from any scenario” Israel might anticipate. Separately, a senior Iranian source told CNN that Iran’s response is expected to be both “definitive and painful” and could occur before the U.S. election. Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani, the chief of staff to Iran’s supreme leader, echoed these sentiments on al-Mayadeen TV, stating that Iran’s response would be “strong” and would make Israel “regret” its actions.
This latest round of tensions follows a highly unusual Israeli attack on Iranian targets last week. In multiple airstrikes, Israel targeted Iranian military infrastructure and air defense systems, marking the first openly acknowledged Israeli assault on Iran, although the strikes did not extend to Iran’s nuclear sites or oil fields. Iranian officials claimed to have repelled the strikes with minimal impact but vowed to retaliate.
Israel’s action was itself a response to an Iranian missile strike against Israel just three weeks earlier, in which Iran reportedly launched 180 missiles that Israel’s air defenses largely intercepted.
Follow Steve Postal: @HebraicMosaic
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What would a new Trump administration mean for the Middle East? Expect the following:
Increased Pressure on Iran and its Proxies
Brian Hook, Trump’s former special envoy to Iran who is believed to be leading Trump’s transition team for the State Department, stated that the new Trump administration would seek to “…isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken them economically, so that they can’t fund all of the violence…” coming from Iran’s proxies, “…all of whom destabilize Israel and our Gulf partners.” This approach contrasts with the Biden-Harris administration, who engaged the Islamic Republic diplomatically and economically, and even removed the Houthis from the Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) entity list from February 2021 through January 2024. That being said, Hook also stated that the new Trump administration would have “no interest in regime change” in Iran, and that decisions about the future of Iran lies with its people.
The Trump administration may green light an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. GOP spokeswoman Elizabeth Pipko refused to say whether President-elect Trump would approve of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear sites, stating that Trump should speak for himself on this issue and will do so when he assumes office. However, Trump had stated in October that Israel should strike Iran’s nuclear sites. In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration vocally opposed Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear sites or oil fields, and Israel’s attack plans were leaked to Iran through someone in the Biden-Harris administration’s Defense department.
Striving to End Wars in Lebanon and Gaza
According to Pipko, President-elect Trump wants Israel to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon quickly, decisively, and with victory. Pipko contrasted this approach with the Biden-Harris administration’s “back and forth” policy, and that the Biden-Harris administration was pressuring how Israel conducts war based on election considerations. The Biden-Harris administration was guilty of “armchair quarterbacking” Israel’s wars in an unproductive way, including by leaking Israel’s plans to strike Lebanon, opposing the Rafah invasion, and opposing the killing of several arch-terrorists.
Trump will also likely prioritize the release of the hostages; Trump recently threatened Hamas, stating that if they did not free its hostages before inauguration day, it will pay “a very big price.” In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration has been spinning its wheels in endless failed diplomacy with Qatar, having not produced a hostage deal with Hamas since November 2023.
Pursuing a Conditional Peace with Palestinians
President-elect Donald Trump will likely re-visit his 2020 peace plan between Israel and the Palestinians, according to Brian Hook. Regarding the 2020 plan, Hook stated that “much of that work is still relevant today.”
On the issue of a Palestinian state, expect that the Trump administration won’t pursue a Palestinian state unconditionally for its own sake, as the Biden-Harris administration has. Hook conceded that Trump’s 2020 plan, which was endorsed by Israel and U.S.’ allies in the Gulf, “had a path to a two-state solution.” But Hook also recognized that Israelis are not focused on a Palestinian state now, and are instead focused on protecting themselves from terrorism in the wake of the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
Additionally, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas outright rejected the 2020 plan, and the plan also required the PA to provide security guarantees for Israel, recognize Israel, and allow Israeli citizens to remain in Judea and Samaria, all of which the PA did not agree to. If the new Trump administration seeks to revive this plan, it will likely revive these conditions for a Palestinian state as well. The PA will then in turn likely reject it a second time, proving again that the PA is not a partner for peace.
Expanding the Abraham Accords
President-elect Trump is also poised to expand the Abraham Accords. Trump brokered normalization deals between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Reportedly, the previous Trump administration was on the verge of expanding the Abraham Accords to Indonesia and Mauritania, but were prevented from doing so once the administration’s term expired. During the past Trump administration, Saudi Arabia had been trying to get Pakistan to join the Abraham Accords as well.
In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration failed to add any countries to the Abraham Accords. Most notably is the administration’s failure to clinch an Israel-Saudi Arabia deal after chilling US relations with Saudi Arabiaand insisting on a Palestinian state as an integral part of any deal. The Biden-Harris administration seems content with now pursuing a bilateral US-Saudi deal that ices out Israel, which would completely undermine the spirit of the Abraham Accords.
Jared Kushner has had multiple discussions with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the issue of US-Israel-Saudi relations since President-elect Trump left office. So given past efforts, the new Trump administration could clinch Abraham Accords deals with Indonesia, Mauritania, Oman, and/or the big prize, Saudi Arabia.
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