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Bibi’s Victory: What It Means for Iran, the Abraham Accords, and the Biden Admin
Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi) is expected to serve as Israeli prime minister for the third time, as Likud and its allies have won 64 seats in the recent election. Bibi is currently Israel’s longest serving prime minister, having served over 15 years in two terms. His re-election marks a resurgent right wing in Israeli politics, and showcases the Likud party as the dominant force in Israel since Menachem Begin’s 1977 election to prime minister.
Prior to the recent election, Bibi faced a harsh defamatory campaign against several of his opponents. An MK of the hard-left Meretz party called Bibi “a malignant disease.” The head of Labor repeated the canard that Bibi cooperated in the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. A Yesh Atid MK likened Bibi to Hitler.
But after the dust settled, such talk didn’t walk. The Labor party will fall to 4 seats (from 7 in last election). Labor’s legacy is a quite dated one, as the party has held the prime minister’s seat for only about 6.5 years total since 1977. The Meretz party fell to 0 seats, the first time it had failed to garner any seats since its founding in 1992.
So, what should we expect from a Bibi victory?
Iran. Bibi will most likely ratchet up pressure on Iran, much like he did in his previous tenure as prime minister. Bibi was at the helm when Israel reportedly participated in the 2020 assassinations of Qasem Soleimani (a key IRGC figure) and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, believed to be the head of Iran’s nuclear program. Bibi was also the prime minister when the Mossad captured Iran’s nuclear file from deep inside Iran. One outgoing Likud member of Knesset stated that he believes that Bibi will strike Iran: “I’m basing my assessment on the fact that when there is no choice, someone has to take command, and that someone will be Netanyahu.” However, back in 2010, then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak ordered the Israeli military to go to the highest level of alert in anticipation of attacking Iran, but the military refused, which some have said amounted to a military coup. So it remains unclear if Bibi will have the ability to wage an all-out strike on Iran.
But Bibi does have some strong tailwinds for confronting Iran, as Iran is now particularly vulnerable on the international stage: the nuclear deal talks with Iran appears to have all but disintegrated; Iran faces significant unrest challenging the legitimacy of the regime; Iran has planned to strike Saudi Arabia; Iran has threatened Saudi Arabiaover its funding of anti-regime coverage of the protests in Iran; and Iran has admitted to providing Russia with drones (while Iran says that these were only provided before the war with Ukraine, Ukraine says that Iran is lying). Bibi can use these developments to his advantage to gain support for continued Israeli sabotage of Iran’s nuclear program and military footprint throughout the Middle East.
Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel remains the grand prize, and Bibi has pledged to achieve a deal between the two countries. Bibi could potentially use Iran’s increased threats to Saudi Arabia as leverage to bring it into the Abraham Accords, or at least into the Joint Middle East Air Defense (MEAD). MEAD is an envisioned strategic partnership between Israel, the U.A.E., Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar that Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz had thought would be brokered during President Biden’s trip to the Middle East, but that never materialized. But the Biden administration could remain the spoiler on any of this, given its history of anti-Saudi rhetoric and its fair-weathered support of Saudi Arabia against Iran and its proxies the Houthis.
The existing pieces of the Abraham Accords are set to remain on track under Bibi. Granted, the UAE had expressed concern that Bibi partnering with the far right in his coalition could endanger the Abraham Accords. But this is likely bluster, given the extensive Israeli-UAE economic ties that have already formed since the Trump administration, mutual grievances about Iran, and past unrealized statements from the UAE and others that they would wait to make peace with Israel until there was Israeli-Palestinian peace. Additionally, Bahrain called Bibi’s victory in the election “normal and always expected” and pledged to continue its partnership with Israel, which is reassuring.
Collision course with the United States? Bibi could be on a collision course with the United States, given various policies that the Biden administration continues to pursue despite them being in direct opposition to Israel’s core national interests. These include:
The “two-state solution.” Following the election, Secretary of State Antony Blinken re-affirmed US support for a two state solution, which is not in Bibi’s or Israel’s interest. However, there may be some room for Bibi and Biden to work together, given the Biden administration being “deeply disappointed” with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ public remarks disparaging the US’ role in, and favoring Russia over the US in Middle East diplomacy.
Jerusalem. A probable point of contention between Israel and the United States will be Jerusalem. It is unlikely that the Biden administration will support Israel’s sovereign rights in Jerusalem, given the Biden administration’s past meetings with the Palestinians in eastern Jerusalem, and its support for a Jerusalem consulate for the Palestinians. Also key will be to what extent the Biden administration turns a blind eye to Israeli Arab and Palestinian incitement of violence against Jews in Jerusalem. For example, Mansour Abbas, MK and head of the Islamist Ra’am party, stated in a veiled threat to Bibi that allowing Jews to pray on the Temple Mount “will lead to war,” echoing Hamas talking points.
Bibi has stated that he will maintain the status quo on the Temple Mount. However, Religious Zionist MK Itamar Ben Gvir, who is expected to join Bibi’s coalition, wants to be public security minister in the new government. If Bibi grants this, Ben Gvir would have enforcement authority over Jewish rights to visit the Temple Mount. Ben Gvir wants to assert such rights, but Palestinians and Arab-Israelis have long claimed that this violates the status quo. It is likely the Biden administration will view an increased presence of Jews praying on the Temple Mount as more of a provocation than as part of an equitable solution.
Other issues. Additional issues that would potentially cause a rift between Israel and the United States include additional payments to the Palestinian Authority and UNRWA, and pressure against Israeli building in the so-called “settlements” of Judea and Samaria.
Conclusion
Bibi’s third term as prime minister of Israel will be marked with a ratcheting up of Israel’s clandestine war against Iran, although it is unclear if this will culminate in an overt strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Bibi will also likely strengthen the Abraham Accords, and hopefully, should the Biden administration not get in the way, sign either a defense or full normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Lastly, there will likely be revived contention between the United States and Israel on key issues of Israeli national sovereignty and security, including the issues of a two-state solution, Jerusalem, settlements and more.
You can follow Steve Postal on Twitter @HebraicMosaic
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EXCLUSIVE: Former Trump appointee explains an ‘America First Strategy’ in the ME
The author interviewed Ellie Cohanim, one of the authors of the new book: “An America First Approach to US National Security.” Ellie is the former U.S. Deputy Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Antisemitism under the Trump administration. She is currently a Senior Fellow with the Independent Women’s Forum focusing on Iran, Israel, and global antisemitism, and is a national security contributor for the Christian Broadcasting Network. In 2021, Ellie launched and hosted for Jewish News Syndicate 30 plus episodes of the show “Global Perspectives with Ellie Cohanim.” Ellie spent 15 years in media and NGO management before serving in the public sector. How would you define an “America First” strategy in the Middle East?
Cohanim: An America First strategy in the Middle East would seek to advance American national security interests in that region, while maintaining our status as THE global superpower. To do that, the US would ensure that our principal allies in the region, countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel, are economically and militarily strong, and that our adversaries in the region are deterred.
Postal: How has the United States’ standing in the Middle East differed between the Trump and Biden administrations?
Cohanim: Under President Trump, for four years we had peace, stability and prosperity in the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region. Under President Biden, in just three tumultuous years there has been war in the region, which holds the potential for becoming a regional conflict and even a nuclear confrontation. Meanwhile, the US’ status in the region and the world has diminished due to Biden’s disastrous mishandling of the Afghanistan withdrawal, his emboldening of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and his weak response to Iranian attacks on our personnel and assets in the region.
It was my honor to join @SaraCarterDC on #TheSaraCarterShow: https://t.co/LooiFkxx34
— Ellie Cohanim (@EllieCohanim) March 12, 2024
Postal: Do you think the United States and Israel are/were in a stronger position to deter Iran’s nuclear and territorial ambitions in Biden or Trump’s administration?
Cohanim: America’s position of strength has not changed under either administration vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic of Iran. What has changed is our Iran policy. Under President Trump’s administration, the US contained and constrained Tehran. Trump applied a “Maximum Pressure” sanctions campaign which left the Iranian Regime with only $4 billion in accessible foreign currency reserves by the end of his term, giving the Iranians less cash and less ability to fund their terror proxies and their nuclear program, and Trump eliminated Qassem Soleimani. While all President Biden needed to do was to continue implementing such successful policies, his administration instead did the exact opposite. Under the Biden administration, Israel, our leading ally in the region, was attacked for the first time directly from Iranian soil. This was an unprecedented escalatory attack by the Iranian regime, and could only happen under the Biden administration.
Postal: In your chapter of the book, you discuss the weakening of US relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia under the Biden administration. How has the Biden administration affected the likelihood of future normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and deals between Israel and other Muslim countries (i.e., new Abraham Accords)?
Cohanim: The good news is that the Abraham Accords have withstood the test of multiple Hamas provocations against Israel, and now the current war. Despite numerous claims from the Biden administration regarding “successful” efforts to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, I do not think that the Biden administration will be able to clinch such a deal. In the Middle East, people have a long memory. Saudi Arabia’s de-facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has not forgotten President Biden’s snub when he first came into office, and Biden’s incredibly poorly advised behavior towards the Crown Prince when he made his first visit to the Kingdom as president. The last thing the Crown Prince wants is to hand Biden his first foreign policy success with a Rose Garden peace deal ceremony. So, I do not believe President Biden can broker Saudi/Israeli normalization.
However, I am also convinced that it is a matter of “when” and not “if” such a peace deal will happen between those two countries, as it serves both of their interests to make such a deal. The Saudis understand better than anyone that it is the Islamic Republic of Iran that threatens the Kingdom’s security and stability, not Israel.
Postal: What do you think of the Biden administration’s latest statements withholding arms to Israel?
Cohanim: President Biden will go down in history for his abject moral failure in not standing by Israel while she fights a five-front war. Biden has shown his despicable personality for trying to keep his anti-Israel arms embargo concealed until he could first deliver a speech on the Holocaust. Biden’s behavior is despicable on so many levels.
Ultimately, Biden is betraying the American people. He came into office presenting himself as a “centrist Democrat,” but has proven repeatedly to be beholden to the radical, extremist, pro-Hamas wing of his party.
Postal: How does the Biden administration’s support of a Palestinian state differ from the Trump administration’s support of a Palestinian state under its Peace to Prosperity framework?
Cohanim: The Biden administration stated that they will “unilaterally recognize” a Palestinian state. What the borders of that state are and who would lead it, nobody knows.
The Trump administration’s “Peace to Prosperity” was a detailed plan that was premised on the realities on the ground in Israel. The plan required that the Palestinians reach benchmarks proving a real desire to live in peace with their Israeli neighbors. It included over $50 billion in investment in the region, which would have been a road to prosperity for all. Perhaps most significantly, the Palestinian state envisioned under the Trump plan would have been demilitarized, the wisdom of which could not be more clear following the October 7 massacre and attack.
The author would like to thank Ellie Cohanim for participating in this interview.
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